Weathering through the Months

We're well underway with autumn 2015, which is proving consistent with the pattern of swings in the weather patterns that have characterized much of this calendar year.

I think back to the winter, with cold and snowy conditions reminiscent of the 2013-2014 winter.  I still hold to the idea that the 2013-2014 winter really wasn't all that bad.  Yet this winter of 2014-2015 wasn't really all that much of an improvement over that of 2013-14.  It did start out with more temperate conditions throughout December.  Then, similar to the winter before, there was a big snowstorm on Epiphany Sunday, the first Sunday of the new year, followed by a plummet in temperatures to bitterly cold levels, prompting cancellation of school sessions as the bitter cold persisted that week.  The rest of January wasn't too extreme.

But then came that big blizzard at the tail end of January and start of February.  The weather experts say that blizzard established a significantly-sized snowpack that maintained very cold air persistently throughout the month of February.

March was generally dry, and brought swings in temperature, with very cold temperatures at the beginning and toward the end, and milder conditions at times in the middle of the month.  Notably, March 16, my birthday, experienced very mild temperatures, with a high temperature into the 70s, which has happened very few times in Chicago weather records dating back to the late 19th Century.

As spring got going, there was a noticeable lack of severe weather, up to and even beyond the day the WGN/Fermilab Severe Weather Seminar was held.  (Nevertheless, there was much to discuss at that seminar, even the devastating effect tornadoes have on those who experience them, which was enough to make Tom Skilling cry.)  Then came April 9, which brought devastating a tornadic event to northern Illinois.

There were some more tornadic events, especially as summer got started.  Severe storms were constantly triggered by disturbances in the atmosphere owing to pockets of rising air, as well as an upper-air pattern that persisted from the northwest, often a trigger of severe weather in the Midwest.  On June 15, after a very heavy rain at the midday hour, a significant severe storm cell formed in the late afternoon.  While moving toward central Cook County, it exhibited rotation indicative of a tornado, prompting a tornado warning for the area, including Oak Park--so that I took cover in the basement--and even the United Center, where spectators were waiting to get inside for the game that led to the Chicago Blackhawks' Stanley Cup victory.

It was very interesting how June started on the cool side, and at the beginning of the second week, brought some very warm temperatures.  But after a warm start, temperatures cooled by Friday--a pattern that happened every week in June, usually after a significant rain event.

July was mostly dry, with some cooler temperatures at times, too.  Then came some warmer temperatures in August, with dry conditions--a pattern that persisted into the start of September.  Fall has brought mostly temperature conditions so far, with some cooler days, and even now, frost conditions in the past few days.

With all this talk about the weather for the past few months, perhaps some of you reading wonder what this winter will bring.  Well, from checking the latest information from the Climate Prediction Center, the indications are that a strong El Niño pattern is taking hold, with warmer than usual temperatures in the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean--a pattern that has ramifications across the globe.  For the Midwestern United States, that means above average temperatures and below average precipitation during the winter.  So there's reason to believe--unlike the busted long-range forecast for the 2013-14 winter--that this winter won't be so cold, and there won't be so much snowfall--a definite change from the past two winters.

Check out this video that explains the NOAA Winter Weather Outlook.